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The fighting raises fears that the Galkayo dispute could escalate into a national conflict, and shows how fragile Somalia remains during its incomplete transition to a new constitutional order and peace. As long as these multiple administrations are not fully constituted and without their specific local political compacts in place, there will be fierce clan competition over their control and undecided borders.
Galkayo is a clear example of what happens when peace is neglected over a desire to show progress. Galkayo population , is divided between two federal states, the Galmudug Interim Administration GIA , just established in , and Puntland, formed in Its local divisions also mirror the larger divide between two dominant and historically rival clan families, the Darod and the Hawiye. Even the nationalist and declared enemy of clannism President Siad Barre could not overcome this divide during his 22 years in power.
In , clan warlords signed the Mudug Peace Agreement to divide the city and its key revenue sources — including the airport and main market — between the two main clans. This brought relative peace for the next two decades. Now neighbouring Puntland feels that the new GIA threatens its authority over populations especially clans and the territory the former Mudug region it claims to control.
When Puntland declared itself a regional state in prior to any federal constitution it was based on two-and-a-half regions Bari, Nugal and the northern half of Mudug. Tensions between Puntland and GIA flared up again in September during consultative meetings on the national elections. By 2 December they had negotiated a fragile truce. This first ceasefire collapsed after just one day amid heavy fighting. Another truce agreed on 5 December is holding, but the situation remains tense.
It has national ramifications. Puntland President Abdiweli Gaas accuses federal forces of providing military support to the GIA, whose president, Abdikarim Guled, was a former federal minister and remains close to the SFG president. In the short term, the SFG must continue to prioritise mediation in cooperation with their international and regional backers to ensure the parties respect the most recent ceasefire.